Thursday, February 11, 2010

Iran - It's showdown time!

According to the wider general media, the current conflict between Iran's fundamentalists and the country's more moderate groups may, yet again, be coming to a head. As much as many of us outside the region would like to see the Moderates' protest become a catalyst for social and political reform, I believe that the protests planned for the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution will only serve to harden the current regime's hard line.

What saddens me is that all this may have been avoided almost a decade and a half ago, when a more progressive Iranian government wanted to reengage the country with the West, openly admitting that the so-called revolution had not been as successful as originally imagined. The response from many Western countries, most notably the USA, was to reject these overtures out-of-hand. Frankly, I think the American reaction was a completely ignorant position, and was based upon that country's then rather conservative Congress wanting to punish the Iranian government for deposing the Shah in 1979 - it's the same idiotic mindset that's been used against Cuba for almost half a century (my favourite part of the latter is the threat of sanctions against any country that trades with the island state, which would include a number of European and Latin American countries whom the US considers strategic allies!).

Had the West responded positively to Iran's desire to reconnect, this traditional centre of Middle Eastern culture and political power would still be run by more progressive individuals. By forcing it back into isolation, it provided a catalyst for the Fundamentalists' return to power, and all the fun and games the rest of the world is having over Iran's nuclear programme.

One can only hope that the reformists in Iraq will continue their protests in a positive, constructive and peaceful manner and that the regime in Teheran will eventually listen to their concerns. Islam is an inclusive faith that traditionally preaches tolerance and openness, and perhaps those in power in Iran need to remind themselves of that.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

FOR SALE: Afghanistan

With reports in the wider media about world leaders offering to pay the Taleban and other opposing groups in Afghanistan to side with the Karzai government, I wonder if those running the war there have finally realised that they cannot overcome these groups by force? If you read the history of the area, you'll understand that everyone, from the likes of Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan through to the Imperial British and the former Soviet Union have tried and failed to subdue the Afghanis.

My concerns are what happens if the Islamists whom we are supposed to be fighting and bringing to justice offer the Taleban more cash for their loyalty than the West is prepared to offer? Are we going to see a bidding war, and how long with such loyalty remain?

...Or perhaps this is merely a way for the US and its allies to extract itself from the place and save face in a publicly palatable manner?